(Riya Saha, Intern Journalist )According to research at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), India might see a huge spike of coronavirus cases in the coming months in absence of a corona vaccine or drugs. India could be the worst-affected country in the world with 2.87lakh cases every day by the end of winter 2021.

The MIT study is conducted by Hazhir Rahmandad, TY Lim, and John Sterman of MIT’s Sloan School of Management. The research also adds that the US will register 95,400 cases per day, South Africa at 20,600, Iran at 17,000, Indonesia 13,200, the UK with 4,200, Nigeria with 4,000, Turkey with 4,000, France at 3,300, and Germany at 3,000 cases.

The world may witness 249 million cases and 1.75 million deaths by spring 2021 in the 84 countries in the absence of breakthroughs in treatment or vaccination, according to the study.

The study underpins the importance of social distancing, “future outcomes are less dependent on testing and more contingent on the willingness of communities and governments to reduce transmission,” it says.

The MIT researchers used the SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model to predict the numbers. The SEIR is a standard mathematical model used by epidemiologists for analysis. The study looks into three factors: (a)Current testing rates and response (b)If testing increases 0.1 percent on a day-to-day basis from July 1 (c) if testing remains at current levels but contact rate or how many people are infected by one person, is estimated to be eight.

The research is based on a study of 84 countries that comprise 60 percent of the world population (4.75 billion people).

The MIT research paper has not been peer-reviewed.

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